Stock Market Sell-off is Caused by Rising Interest Rates; Cyclicals, Financials and Industrials Remain the Strongest Sectors; Treasury Bond Funds Underperform

In January the stock market became dangerously overbought following the tax reform rally, and as we anticipated, a sell-off occurred:

Chart 1.

The sell-off was triggered by rising interest rates, fears of rising inflation, and the potential of a more aggressive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

A worrisome sign for the stock market is that shorter-term interest rates are rising faster than long-term rates, which could lead to yield curve inversion, a condition where short-term rates are higher than long-term interest rates. The bottom panel of Chart 2. shows the ratio of the 10-year vs. 30-year yield indexes. The ratio line is steadily rising since last July, as denoted by the blue arrow:

Chart 2.

Rising interest rates negatively impacted funds that invest in this space:

Chart 3.

The stock market sell-off is uneven with some sectors falling faster than others. Currently, the spread of the total return between the best and the worst sectors over the last three months is 25%. Should the market continue to drop, we think that this spread will continue to widen. Conversely, if we see a relief rally by mid next week, the spread will probably become more narrow.

Chart 4.

The industry groups with the strongest relative strength vs. the S&P 500 index are the cyclicals (consumer discretionary), financials and industrials. We’d like to highlight financial services and defense stocks (part of the industrials group) as two sectors that can potentially lead the market once the market correction ends.

Chart 5.

Chart 6.

Chart 7.

We continue to like the technology sector, as well, because of its lesser dependence on changes in interest rates and because of the proliferation of disruptive technologies from robotics to intelligent software:

Chart 8.

 

View fund ratings at FidelitySectorReport.com for more information.

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Sector Rotation: Technology Sector Outperforms in 2015; Avoid the Utilities and Natural Resources Sectors

Summary:

• The technology sector, led by Apple, semiconductor and large cap Internet companies, has become one of the leading equity sectors in 2015
• Rising interest rates resulted in a trend reversal for the utility sector
• The strengthening dollar and declining energy prices cause the natural resources sector to resume its decline

The Nasdaq index (where many of the market-leading technology companies are listed) closed above the historically important 5,000 level yesterday. This level has not been seen since the dot com bubble of 2000. This time around, we think that the bull market in the technology sector is sustainable and stock prices will go higher from here.

One of the best ways to participate in this trend for Fidelity mutual fund investors is by building a position in the Select Technology fund (FSPTX). The top portion of the chart below shows that the relative strength of FSPTX compared to the S&P 500 has turned positive in 2015, which is a very bullish sign:

Steadily rising long-term Treasury rates caused a sharp sell off in the interest rate sensitive utilities sector. The chart of the Fidelity Select Utilities Fund (FSUTX) shows that the sector is not participating in the stock market rally and has broken its long-term uptrend:

In a previous article we warned that it is too early to invest in the natural resources sector. In spite of the rally in January, this sector continues to be in a downtrend and we think that there are many better investment opportunities in this market.

Read more about investment strategies involving these funds at FidelitySignal.com

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Stock Market is at All Time High Again; New Investment Opportunities Emerge

The chart of the Fidelity Spartan U.S. Equity Index Fund (FUSEX) shows that U.S. equities broke out from a volatile trading range that started in early December of last year. At the same time, the yield of Treasury bonds reversed course, which caused the Spartan Long-Term Treasury Bond Fund (FLBIX) to correct:

Mutual funds investing in the leading sectors have continued to advance this year, but may be ripe for a pullback now to their respective moving averages (blue lines on the charts):

 

As the equity market has turned more bullish again, sector rotation has intensified, as well. This is good news for investors, since new investment opportunities are emerging. One example is the Fidelity Select Materials Fund (FSDPX):

Read more about investment strategies involving these funds at FidelitySignal.com

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Top 10 Fidelity Mutual Funds

The broad-based rally for U.S. stocks continues, as we approach the seasonally bullish year-end period. The list of the top 10 Fidelity funds (see more at FidelitySignal) is dominated by sector funds representing a diverse set of industries, such as retailing, consumer finance, IT services, health care and transportation:

The top year-to-date performer is the Fidelity Select Transportation Fund (FSRFX) with 29.01% gain so far in 2014. The holdings of the fund include airline, shipping and railroad companies, which all benefit from declining energy prices.

 

Stock Market Correction Causes Flight to Safe Investments

As the equity market correction unfolds, the current list of the top 10 Fidelity mutual funds shows a dramatic shift compared to what we have seen throughout the year: seven out of the top ten funds are now income funds.

 

One of the most important new developments is that the yield of the 30-year Treasury bond continues in a downtrend causing long-term Treasury bonds to to resume a very strong uptrend:

The weakest investments that I highlighted in previous blog articles, such as mutual funds investing in the Eurozone and energy, have continued to decline. However, they are so oversold now that it would not be surprising to see a relief rally.

The market leaders of the last 12 months, including technology and communications sectors, are turning over now, which is a worrisome sign about the short-term prospects of the stock market:

View investment strategies at FidelitySignal.com

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The Defense Sector Lags the Market

The earnings season often brings volatility for equities, but this summer the bullish trend stayed uninterrupted for the S&P 500 index. The benchmark Fidelity Spartan U.S. Equity Index Fund (FUSEX) has gained an impressive 5.85% return in the last three months:

The Fidelity Select Defense/Aerospace Fund (FSDAX) is the weakest performing Fidelity fund with a -2.63% year-to-date return. The chart below shows that the relative strength of this sector has been declining since the January correction. The chart pattern is negative, as well. We would avoid investing in this sector until FSDAX regains its momentum and moves above the 100-day moving average line.

Gold Stocks Enter a New Bull Market

After reaching a multi-year low a year ago, the Fidelity Select Gold Fund (FSAGX) has now decisively advanced past a treacherous up and down trading range and started the initial stage of a potentially long-term new bull market.

The first rally came in August 2013, which signaled the end of the bear market for the gold sector. However, prices unexpectedly reversed the bullish trend in September following the highly publicized selling of gold assets by hedge funds, which also coincided with low inflation expectations.

In December, gold stocks revisited the June lows, but were able to hold this level creating a chart pattern that is known as the double bottom. From the December low the sector rallied strongly and has been making higher highs and higher lows, which is one of the hallmarks of a bullish trend. As the result, the Fidelity Select Gold Fund (FSAGX) is the best performing Fidelity mutual fund so far in 2014 with an outstanding 35.11% return.

We must caution investors that the gold sector can be highly volatile and investing in gold stocks is often regarded as highly speculative. Investing in the broader natural resources sector provides more diversification and may be more appropriate for a conservative portfolio (read more on the Fidelity Natural Resources Fund).

See more portfolio strategies at FidelitySignal.com

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The Best Fidelity Funds Right Now May Surprise You

Volatility has increased in the equity markets in the last two weeks, which makes it confusing for investors to see where the market is headed. That is why it may be useful to take a look at the top 10 ranked Fidelity funds (ranking is provided by FidelitySignal):

To make sense of the current market dynamics, let’s focus on the Fidelity funds with green arrows in the weekly column. These are the investments that both make the top 10 ranking and also have increased their rank compared to a week ago.

On top of the list is the Fidelity Select Natural Gas Fund (FSNGX). The top panel in the chart below shows that FSNGX has a very strong relative strength (ratio of the the fund and the $SPY tracking index) compared to the S&P 500 index:

Our second example is the Fidelity Select Natural Resources Fund (FNARX). As noted in earlier blog articles, FNARX continues to outperform other equity sectors:

The third example is the Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund (FRIFX). We highlighted FRIFX as a top income investment choice for 2014 in previous articles and FRIFX continues to show a strong positive trend:

Now, let’s contrast our top  movers with the currently weakest sector, which is biotechnology (see FBIOX chart below):

 

In conclusion, while utilities and other defensive sectors are making gains, as well, the current market environment seems to favor natural resources and real estate investments.

 

Buy and sell signals are available at FidelitySignal.com

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The Fidelity Select Natural Resources, Natural Gas and Energy Funds are the Top Gainers Today

Seesaw market action today resulted in the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly reaching an all-time high level before pulling back at the end of the trading session. Perhaps the most disappointing is the performance of companies in the social media and biotechnology sectors. These sectors led the bull market last year, but they no longer appear to be in in favor with investors.

While market volatility and sector rotation can be confusing on the short run, it is worthwhile to take a look at the long-term picture from time-to-time. The five-year charts below show three excellent Fidelity funds (FNARX, FSNGX and FSENX) that invest in the natural resources sector. This sector includes natural gas, oil and other energy sources, in addition to metals and materials stocks.

The charts show that the natural resources sector resumed its long-term uptrend last July, which coincided with an about 10% increase of crude oil prices. This positive trend is also supported by the American energy renaissance, which includes the development of unconventional and alternative energy resources.

While stocks of natural resources companies can be volatile, this sector continues to be an attractive choice for investors seeking diversification in 2014, because both the fundamental and the technical drivers are in place.

 

Buy and sell signals are available at FidelitySignal.com

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Sector Rotation: Gold and Utilities Stocks are Poised to Advance; Avoid the Telecommunications Sector

Equity markets  sold off this week due to worries about the escalation of the Ukraine situation and the fears about the potential weakening of the Chinese economy.

Few sector funds are making higher highs in this negative market environment of the last few days. We highlight here Fidelity funds corresponding two sectors, gold and utilities, which show the strongest relative strength compared to our benchmark Fidelity Spartan U.S. Equity Index Fund (FUSEX).

Both the price action and the declining relative strength line (the ratio of the investment versus the S&P500 index) shows that the telecommunications sector is one of the weakest equity sectors right now. We would avoid investing in this sector based on current conditions.

Buy and sell signals are available at FidelitySignal.com

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