5 Top Fidelity Mutual Funds to Watch in 2015

Summary

• A technical screen of Fidelity mutual funds shows that new investment areas emerged in 2015 to lead the market
• The natural resources sector, which includes energy, has the potential to provide market-beating returns. On the other hand, investors shouldn’t expect low volatility, because commodity prices can fluctuate in a wide range
• International markets, most notably Asia and Europe, may outperform U.S. equities this year

From time-to-time, it is important to take a broad view of the market, so we can better understand the changing conditions and dynamics. Five month ago, back in November 2014, our momentum screen showed that the top 10 Fidelity mutual funds were all equity funds representing the consumer, health care and transportation sectors of the U.S. economy (see article).

While equity funds continue to outperform bond funds, the picture is very different now. Mutual funds investing in energy and other natural resources, and international markets are the market leaders. At the same time, select U.S. sectors, such as utilities, are lagging:

Speculation about bottoming oil and commodity prices have caused an impressive rally in the natural resources sector. A great way to participate in the potentially long-term bullish trend in this sector is via the Fidelity Select Natural Resources Fund (FNARX).

The Fidelity China Region fund (FHKCX) is now the best year-to-date performer of all Fidelity mutual funds with a 20.97% gain.

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Sector Rotation: Technology Sector Outperforms in 2015; Avoid the Utilities and Natural Resources Sectors

Summary:

• The technology sector, led by Apple, semiconductor and large cap Internet companies, has become one of the leading equity sectors in 2015
• Rising interest rates resulted in a trend reversal for the utility sector
• The strengthening dollar and declining energy prices cause the natural resources sector to resume its decline

The Nasdaq index (where many of the market-leading technology companies are listed) closed above the historically important 5,000 level yesterday. This level has not been seen since the dot com bubble of 2000. This time around, we think that the bull market in the technology sector is sustainable and stock prices will go higher from here.

One of the best ways to participate in this trend for Fidelity mutual fund investors is by building a position in the Select Technology fund (FSPTX). The top portion of the chart below shows that the relative strength of FSPTX compared to the S&P 500 has turned positive in 2015, which is a very bullish sign:

Steadily rising long-term Treasury rates caused a sharp sell off in the interest rate sensitive utilities sector. The chart of the Fidelity Select Utilities Fund (FSUTX) shows that the sector is not participating in the stock market rally and has broken its long-term uptrend:

In a previous article we warned that it is too early to invest in the natural resources sector. In spite of the rally in January, this sector continues to be in a downtrend and we think that there are many better investment opportunities in this market.

Read more about investment strategies involving these funds at FidelitySignal.com

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Long-Term Bullish Trend is Intact for U.S. Equities, in spite of Increased Volatility; Gold Forms a Bullish Double-Bottom Chart Pattern; It is Still Early to Invest in the Energy Sector or in International Equities;

It is always good to take a look at long-term trends when short-term volatility increases, in order to have a better sense of the market direction. While the widely anticipated stock market correction remains a possibility, in our view, the long-term bullish trend for U.S. equities is still intact.

The chart shows that the multi-year uptrend for the benchmark Fidelity Spartan U.S. Equity Index Fund (FUSEX) has not yet been interrupted by the recent market volatility:

In a recent article (see Best Fidelity Mutual Funds for 2015) we highlighted the most attractive investments for 2015. The selected mutual funds have continued to perform well in the last few weeks of trading. Especially, conservative sectors, such as real estate, utilities, medical equipment and consumer staples have outperformed the S&P 500 index:

Perhaps, the most interesting new development in 2015 is the renewed interest in buying gold mining stocks. The chart of the Fidelity Select Gold Fund (FSAGX) below shows a short-term bullish double bottom pattern and increased buying activity during the first two weeks of the New Year. However, gold has a long way to go before it can establish a long-term uptrend.

While gold is traditionally viewed as an inflation hedge, in the current deflationary environment precious metals are looked at as an alternate asset class that can potentially serve as a volatility hedge. We’d like to caution investors, that while gold can provide returns that have low correlation with equities, this sector is highly speculative and is more appropriate for the purposes of short-term trading than long-term investing.

As noted in earlier articles, we believe that it is still too early to diversify into the weakest sectors, such as natural resources (in particular energy), and into underperforming international markets.

The blue lines on the charts of the Fidelity Select Energy Fund (FSENX) and the Fidelity Latin America Fund (FLATX) indicate that the bearish downtrends that are still in place:

Read more about investment strategies involving these funds at FidelitySignal.com

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The Best Fidelity Mutual Funds for 2015

Summary:

• Economic conditions continue to favor real estate investments
• Municipal income and mortgage securities can provide an alternate source of income for bond investors
• Style rotation: value investing is likely to outperform growth stocks in 2015, just as small caps have the potential to outperform large caps
• Gold has not yet emerged as a good choice for diversification
• It is too early to invest in the energy sector or in international equities

The slowly improving U.S. economy and low interest rates have created a favorable environment for real estate investments. The Select Construction and Housing Fund (FSHOX) and the Real Estate Income Fund (FRIFX) are two excellent Fidelity funds, which allow investors to participate in this trend. The blue arrow in the top panel of the chart below shows that FSHOX has a positive relative strength compared to the S&P 500 index, because FSHOX has outperformed the S&P 500 index since August of 2014. Similarly, FRIFX has outperformed the benchmark Fidelity Spartan U.S. Bond Index Fund (FBIDX).

As the U.S. economy continues to improve, the Fed may start to increase interest rates in late 2015 or early 2016. In a rising interest rate environment bond investors may find it increasingly difficult to identify income funds that do not decline in value. As an example, the Fidelity High Income Fund (SPHIX) has already started to decline:

Two income funds that can outperform in 2015 are the Fidelity Spartan Municipal Income Fund (FHIGX) and the Fidelity Mortgage Securities Fund (FMSFX). The current yield of FHIGX is 3.54%, while FMSFX yields 2.49%.

Style rotation refers to the periodic over and under performance of different investment styles, such as growth vs. value, or large cap vs. small cap. For most of 2014 growth has outperformed value investing, and large caps have outperformed small caps. In 2015, we think that these relative trends can easily reverse. Two Fidelity funds, which can help investors to participate, are the Fidelity Value Fund (FDVLX) and the Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund (FLPSX):

Investing in gold mining stocks can provide an attractive opportunity for portfolio diversification. Of course, the best time to invest in the gold mining sector is when it is not declining. Unfortunately, that is not the case right now. However, should this trend reverse, the Fidelity Select Gold Fund (FSAGX) is an excellent mutual fund for investing in this sector.

The history of the stock market shows that the weakest investments in one year can often become the best performing investments a year or two later. However, looking at natural resources and international stocks, the two weakest investments areas in 2014, we think that they likely to continue to decline in early 2015, therefore it is too early to accumulate an investment position.

Read more about investment strategies involving these funds at FidelitySignal.com

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Gold Stocks Enter a New Bull Market

After reaching a multi-year low a year ago, the Fidelity Select Gold Fund (FSAGX) has now decisively advanced past a treacherous up and down trading range and started the initial stage of a potentially long-term new bull market.

The first rally came in August 2013, which signaled the end of the bear market for the gold sector. However, prices unexpectedly reversed the bullish trend in September following the highly publicized selling of gold assets by hedge funds, which also coincided with low inflation expectations.

In December, gold stocks revisited the June lows, but were able to hold this level creating a chart pattern that is known as the double bottom. From the December low the sector rallied strongly and has been making higher highs and higher lows, which is one of the hallmarks of a bullish trend. As the result, the Fidelity Select Gold Fund (FSAGX) is the best performing Fidelity mutual fund so far in 2014 with an outstanding 35.11% return.

We must caution investors that the gold sector can be highly volatile and investing in gold stocks is often regarded as highly speculative. Investing in the broader natural resources sector provides more diversification and may be more appropriate for a conservative portfolio (read more on the Fidelity Natural Resources Fund).

See more portfolio strategies at FidelitySignal.com

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Top 10 Fidelity Mutual Funds

The salient feature of the bullish uptrend of the U.S. equity market this summer is low volatility. Most sectors are up since the last correction in February. The benchmark Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund (FUSEX) has returned 6.56% in the last three months.

As energy prices have slowly increased since January, it is not surprising to see Fidelity funds investing in the natural resources sector dominating the list of the top 10 Fidelity funds (ranking is provided by FidelitySignal):

One of our favorite investments in this sector is the Fidelity Natural Resources Fund (FNARX). FNARX has provided an excellent 35.48% gain since the buy signal was issued on April 22, 2013. The top panel of the chart below shows that the relative strength of FNARX compared to the S&P 500 index has been increasing, which continues to make this mutual fund an attractive investment:

 

 

Buy and sell signals for Fidelity funds are available at FidelitySignal.com

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Best Fidelity Mutual Funds for Investing in the Energy Sector

The gradually increasing price of natural resources and the prospect of worldwide economic recovery have resulted in the sector becoming one of the top investment areas. Fidelity offers several excellent mutual funds to take advantage of this long-term trend. Here, we highlight three of the top ranked natural resources funds (see ranking).

The Fidelity Select Natural Gas Portfolio Fund (FSNGX) is one of the top performing Fidelity mutual fund in 2014 with a 14.17% year-to-date return. The blue arrow on top panel of the chart shows that FSNGX has outperformed the S&P 500 index since January:

The Fidelity Select Energy Services Fund (FSESX) also shows a similar, very bullish chart pattern:

For investors who are interested in broad diversification across of natural resources, the Fidelity Select Natural Resources Fund (FNARX) offers an excellent investment choice:

 

Buy and sell signals for Fidelity funds are available at FidelitySignal.com

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The Best Fidelity Funds Right Now May Surprise You

Volatility has increased in the equity markets in the last two weeks, which makes it confusing for investors to see where the market is headed. That is why it may be useful to take a look at the top 10 ranked Fidelity funds (ranking is provided by FidelitySignal):

To make sense of the current market dynamics, let’s focus on the Fidelity funds with green arrows in the weekly column. These are the investments that both make the top 10 ranking and also have increased their rank compared to a week ago.

On top of the list is the Fidelity Select Natural Gas Fund (FSNGX). The top panel in the chart below shows that FSNGX has a very strong relative strength (ratio of the the fund and the $SPY tracking index) compared to the S&P 500 index:

Our second example is the Fidelity Select Natural Resources Fund (FNARX). As noted in earlier blog articles, FNARX continues to outperform other equity sectors:

The third example is the Fidelity Real Estate Income Fund (FRIFX). We highlighted FRIFX as a top income investment choice for 2014 in previous articles and FRIFX continues to show a strong positive trend:

Now, let’s contrast our top  movers with the currently weakest sector, which is biotechnology (see FBIOX chart below):

 

In conclusion, while utilities and other defensive sectors are making gains, as well, the current market environment seems to favor natural resources and real estate investments.

 

Buy and sell signals are available at FidelitySignal.com

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The Fidelity Select Natural Resources, Natural Gas and Energy Funds are the Top Gainers Today

Seesaw market action today resulted in the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly reaching an all-time high level before pulling back at the end of the trading session. Perhaps the most disappointing is the performance of companies in the social media and biotechnology sectors. These sectors led the bull market last year, but they no longer appear to be in in favor with investors.

While market volatility and sector rotation can be confusing on the short run, it is worthwhile to take a look at the long-term picture from time-to-time. The five-year charts below show three excellent Fidelity funds (FNARX, FSNGX and FSENX) that invest in the natural resources sector. This sector includes natural gas, oil and other energy sources, in addition to metals and materials stocks.

The charts show that the natural resources sector resumed its long-term uptrend last July, which coincided with an about 10% increase of crude oil prices. This positive trend is also supported by the American energy renaissance, which includes the development of unconventional and alternative energy resources.

While stocks of natural resources companies can be volatile, this sector continues to be an attractive choice for investors seeking diversification in 2014, because both the fundamental and the technical drivers are in place.

 

Buy and sell signals are available at FidelitySignal.com

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