Gold Stocks Enter a New Bull Market

July 11, 2014

After making a multi-year low a year ago, the Fidelity Select Gold Fund (FSAGX) has now decisively advanced past a treacherous up and down trading range and started the initial stage of a potentially long-term new bull market.

The first rally came in August 2013, which signaled the end of the bear market for the gold sector. However, prices unexpectedly reversed the bullish trend in September following the highly publicized selling of gold assets by hedge funds, which also coincided with low inflation expectations.

In December, gold stocks revisited the June lows, but were able to hold this level creating a chart pattern that is known as the double bottom. From the December low the sector rallied strongly and has been making higher highs and higher lows, which is one of the hallmarks of a bullish trend. As the result, the Fidelity Select Gold Fund (FSAGX) is the best performing Fidelity mutual fund so far in 2014 with an outstanding 35.11% return.

We must caution investors that the gold sector can be highly volatile and investing in gold stocks is often regarded as highly speculative. Investing in the broader natural resources sector provides more diversification and may be more appropriate for a conservative portfolio (read more on the Fidelity Natural Resources Fund).

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See more portfolio strategies at FidelitySignal.com

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index cannot Hold the 17,000 Level; Biotech Sector Shows Signs of a Possible Correction; Real Estate Stocks may be Ready for a New Rally

July 8, 2014

Ahead of the July 4th holiday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly reached the all-time high 17,000 level, but was not able to hold it this week. The chart below shows that the Dow is still in a bullish uptrend, but what makes us concerned is the more severe sell-off in market leading sectors, such as biotechnology.

We are also approaching the seasonally weak fall period. Since many of the infamous stock market crashes occurred between September and November, we caution our readers to be increasingly careful with committing new funds to “risk on” investments.

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The biotech sector has been one of the market leaders in the last 18 months. The chart shows that the sector corrected hard from the March highs in April and May, but was able to rally back in June. The large 3.14% drop of the Fidelity Biotechnology Fund (FBIOX), which is the largest biotechnology fund available to investors, is concerning, because it may signal the start of a market correction.

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While aggressive equity sectors got hit hard today, long-term Treasury bond rates trended lower, which helped interest rate sensitive investments to go higher. One of our current favorites in this space is the Fidelity Real Estate Portfolio Fund (FRESX). FRESX was one of the few Fidelity funds that posted a gain today and we would not be surprised to see FRESX to hold its current bullish trend even if stock market conditions weaken.

fresx

Buy and sell signals for Fidelity funds are available at FidelitySignal.com

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Two Investment Strategies that can Help you to Take Advantage of Declining Interest Rates

June 30, 2014

Already low interest rates have prompted many market observers to call for the decline of interest rate sensitive investments when the New Year started in January, but the opposite happened. Long-term treasury yields dropped and continue to decline:

tyx

As Treasury bond yields declined and the economy showed signs of improvement, investors have started to seek out high-yielding corporate bonds. The Fidelity Capital and Income Fund (FAGIX) is an excellent way to participate in this trend:

fagix

Emerging market economies are known to experience cycles of boom and bust. The boom periods can be highly rewarding for investors by producing double or sometimes even triple digit gains, while the bust periods tend to make risk averse investors exit these markets and seek out low-risk investments.

Declining interest rates, market friendly Fed policies, slow and steady economic growth, increased risk tolerance by investors and renewed appetite for investments with outsized returns have created a new bull market in emerging market equities in late spring. Our favorite fund in this space is the Fidelity Emerging Markets Fund (FEMKX), which have produced stellar returns since its inception in 1990.

femkx

Buy and sell signals for Fidelity funds are available at FidelitySignal.com

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The Best Fidelity Fund for Value Investors

June 30, 2014

Value investing is a time-tested strategy that involves identifying undervalued stocks with potential to grow. While many investors enjoy the research that is needed to find promising stocks, mutual funds are also available to make it easier to follow this strategy.

One of the best value funds available to individual investors is the Fidelity Value Fund (FDVLX). The low volatility market conditions have favored this investment approach since late 2012, and the management team at FDVLX continues to take full advantage of the stock picking opportunities in 2014.

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Buy and sell signals for Fidelity funds are available at FidelitySignal.com

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Top 10 Fidelity Mutual Funds

June 30, 2014

The salient feature of the bullish uptrend of the U.S. equity market this summer is low volatility. Most sectors are up since the last correction in February. The benchmark Fidelity Spartan 500 Index Fund (FUSEX) has returned 6.56% in the last three months.

As energy prices have slowly increased since January, it is not surprising to see Fidelity funds investing in the natural resources sector dominating the list of the top 10 Fidelity funds (ranking is provided by FidelitySignal):

Top10

One of our favorite investments in this sector is the Fidelity Natural Resources Fund (FNARX). FNARX has provided an excellent 35.48% gain since the buy signal was issued on April 22, 2013. The top panel of the chart below shows that the relative strength of FNARX compared to the S&P 500 index has been increasing, which continues to make this mutual fund an attractive investment:

 

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Buy and sell signals for Fidelity funds are available at FidelitySignal.com

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Why Diversify into International Markets

June 4, 2014

The prospect of worldwide economic recovery in 2015 is already making investors rethink their diversification strategy. Equity markets often anticipate economic changes 6 to 12 month into the future, as market participants are taking positions ahead of time.

One of the best ways for conservative investors to participate in the renewed interest in international markets is via the Fidelity Diversified International Fund (FDIVX).  FDIVX invests 58% of its assets in Europe, but Japan and Emerging Markets carry large weightings, as well. FDIVX also invests 12% of its assets in the United States.

From the technical analysis perspective, the two-year chart of FDIVX shows a strong bullish trend that was interrupted by a correction only last June. For most of 2014 the fund moved sideways until the recent breakout to a new high:

fdivx

 

Buy and sell signals for Fidelity funds are available at FidelitySignal.com

 


Investor’s Business Daily Article on International Markets

May 31, 2014

In the news: read article at Investors.com by FidelitySignal editor, Gabe Varga, CMT.

 

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